Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 2.112231 2.223416 2.342673 2.481113 2.638740 2.814325 3.027211
2025-06-29 1.980617 2.122185 2.280350 2.472821 2.704661 2.980604 3.343557
2025-07-06 1.865708 2.021419 2.199974 2.424185 2.705080 3.056183 3.548903
2025-07-13 1.817553 1.990678 2.194378 2.458484 2.803456 3.258882 3.949576
2025-07-20 1.792823 1.983795 2.214113 2.522359 2.942702 3.531749 4.511092
2025-07-27 1.744973 1.944471 2.189239 2.524335 2.996107 3.688686 4.933212
2025-08-03 1.704208 1.910847 2.168280 2.528055 3.049927 3.851700 5.415548
2025-08-10 1.640516 1.844930 2.101487 2.463696 2.997054 3.836074 5.548379
2025-08-17 1.602309 1.809574 2.072461 2.449061 3.015936 3.939955 5.966446
2025-08-24 1.568287 1.777941 2.046427 2.436276 3.035410 4.046506 6.437470
2025-08-31 1.537678 1.749363 2.022863 2.425033 3.055437 4.156218 6.975082
2025-09-07 1.520837 1.737922 2.021590 2.445581 3.127803 4.376247 7.982059
2025-09-14 1.472396 1.684148 1.961510 2.377526 3.050729 4.295614 7.996288
2025-09-21 1.447366 1.660628 1.942181 2.369408 3.074051 4.424632 8.885491
2025-09-28 1.411802 1.621937 1.900295 2.324773 3.030692 4.405434 9.181011
2025-10-05 1.403015 1.618787 1.907801 2.355904 3.122366 4.701012 11.399613
2025-10-12 1.402967 1.627256 1.931813 2.413944 3.269121 5.171451 16.756803
2025-10-19 1.386009 1.611982 1.921026 2.415697 3.310672 5.391967 22.338064
2025-10-26 1.370454 1.598125 1.911672 2.419054 3.355485 5.637033 34.599774
2025-11-02 1.338020 1.560124 1.865911 2.360501 3.272523 5.489956 32.939802
2025-11-09 1.319733 1.541387 1.847909 2.347160 3.279758 5.619338 52.168415
2025-11-16 1.302758 1.524058 1.831421 2.335501 3.289349 5.760523 156.485453
2025-11-23 1.286920 1.507940 1.816221 2.325244 3.300909 5.913615 NaN